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Suntech Power is pummeled with put volume, downgrades ahead of earnings

China-based Suntech Power Holdings (NYSE: STP) is slated to report its third-quarter earnings results ahead of the opening bell tomorrow, and the solar stock looks particularly vulnerable to a post-report drubbing. Sector peer JA Solar (NASDAQ: JASO) fell to an all-time low last week after offering a weak outlook, while Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) today lowered its revenue forecast for 2008.

Currently, First Call reports that analysts are expecting STP to report a quarterly profit of 42 cents per American depositary receipt. Suntech has a respectable history in the earnings spotlight, having exceeded the Street's forecast in three out of its past four reports.

On the plus side, it seems as though many brokerage firms have already downwardly revised their expectations for STP. There have been 10 cuts to the firm's average 2008 earnings-per-share estimates, compared to just two increases.

Plus, several analysts have issued bearish notes on Suntech in the past few weeks: Jefferies & Co. cut its price target on November 17; JPMorgan Chase cut the stock from "neutral" to "underweight" and lowered its price target on November 16; Raymond James downgraded STP from "strong buy" to "outperform" on November 13, the same day that AmTech Research slashed its price target; and Deutsche Bank cut the stock from "hold" to "sell" on November 10.

Continue reading Suntech Power is pummeled with put volume, downgrades ahead of earnings

Bank of America doubles down on China

While the growth in China is slowing, the fact remains that things are still fairly robust – especially compared to many other global economies. As a result, investors still want to put money into the country. After all, with China's huge domestic economy, there is likely to be strong long-term growth.

So this week, Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) agreed to exercise its option to double its position in China Construction Bank (CCB), which is the #3 financial institution in China. The stake comes to about 19.1%.

Keep in mind that Bank of America got a sweet discount on the option. Thus, the position is in-the-money – the investment has tripled in value to $14.5 billion -- and it may be tempting for the firm to start dumping shares. In fact, shares of China Construction Bank have taken a hit because of the this possibility.

And, as for Bank of America, it could be a savvy move. Of course, the firm had to slash its dividend and must integrate the huge acquisitions of Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) and Countrywide. At the same time, Bank of America's stock price continues to deteriorate. So, bagging a couple extra billion is probably a good bet right now.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Streetsmart Guide to Short Selling: Techniques the Pros Use to Profit in Any Market. He is also the founder of BizEquity
, a valuation website.

China now biggest foreign owner of U.S. Treasuries

Yet another milestone has been reached in the ever-evolving global economy: China has passed Japan to become the largest foreign owner of U.S. Treasuries, the U.S. Treasury Department announced Tuesday.

China added $43.6 billion in U.S. Treasuries in September to about $585 billion in U.S. government debt, ahead of Japan's $573 billion.

Economist David H. Wang says the increased demand for U.S. Treasuries reflects both a global trend and an effort on China's part to increase high-rated bond holdings.

"In general, of course, during the financial crisis we've seen a global flight-to-safety by institutional investors, which has increased demand for U.S. government bonds," Wang said. "Also, China has made it known that it will be adding to existing U.S. bond positions, and the September data is further confirmation of this investment stance."

That global demand, led by China, has enabled the United States to have perhaps the most unique of all possible financing circumstances: moderate interest rates to finance its debt despite rapidly increasing borrowing to pay for the U.S. bank rescue and related financial stabilization programs, Wang said. For example, despite record government borrowing, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is lower today, at 3.68%, than it was in August, 3.88%.

Continue reading China now biggest foreign owner of U.S. Treasuries

Private equity's top guns remain glum ... but still finding deals

This week, some of the top veterans in private equity -- TPG's David Bonderman, Carlyle's David Rubenstein, and KKR's George Roberts -- got together at a conference in Hong Kong. And, all in all, it was fairly depressing (hey, I guess that's what happens when you lose billions and billions of dollars).

Take Bonderman. He thinks the downturn will be protracted, calling it an L-shaped recession (the more common description is a V-shaped recession, which means there is a strong snapback). In fact, he thinks U.S. unemployment will hit 10% or so.

Then again, keep in mind that Bonderman lost about $1.3 billion on his six month investment in Washington Mutual.

Despite all this, Bonderman still has an appetite for investments. For example, he's focusing on the debt securities from hedge funds. Because of massive redemptions, the prices are at distressed levels.

Rubenstein also gave a grim presentation (he thinks the downturn can last several years). But, he is still bullish on some opportunities, especially in Asia. For example, he thinks China offers some compelling valuations and that the country may become more open to outside investments.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Streetsmart Guide to Short Selling: Techniques the Pros Use to Profit in Any Market. He is also the founder of BizEquity, a valuation website.

Financial crisis impacts the European car market

We all know the impact that the current economic slowdown has had on American auto sales, and today we get news that European car sales are also feeling the pain, with auto sales dipping 15% during the month of October.

According to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, or the ACEA, October marks the sixth straight month that new-car registrations have fallen, but things have been much worse since the summer, when concerns of a global recession really started to spread.

General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) was the worst hit major American automaker, which had a 25% decline in sales in October on a year over year basis. Japanese maker, Toyota Motor Company (NYSE: TM) did not fare to much better, with a 24% dip in sales. Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) did a little bit better, with a reported 11.9% decline in October sales. Europe's largest automaker, Volkswagen, held up the best among the majors, with "only" a 7.9% drop.

Continue reading Financial crisis impacts the European car market

Oversold bounce due for Emerging Markets (EEM)

"iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ASE: EEM) is a bet on on a short-term bottom in emerging markets," says international expert Nick Vardy in The Global Bull Market Alert.

"This recommendation is based on the belief that the initiatives of policy makers across the globe will trigger a sustained, short-term bounce between now and the end of the year.

"First, the policy responses to the global economic crisis have been both massive and coordinated. These efforts combined will ease the shortage of dollars that has ravaged emerging markets.

"Second, emerging market equities are as cheap as they have ever been. The benchmark MSCI Emerging Markets index is trading at a P/E in the single digits, down from 18.5 a year ago.

Continue reading Oversold bounce due for Emerging Markets (EEM)

Dear China: Please send Wal-Mart gift cards to every American

The growth in China's exports has slowed. In October, its U.S. export/import balance showed a $17.5 billion surplus, a record produced not by soaring exports but by falling imports. The country, fearing repercussions of a downturn in spending here and abroad, announced a $586 billion economic stimulus program to prop up its slowing economy.

While I'm not a expert on foreign trade, I would like to send along an idea for the consideration of the Chinese government. If you really want to stimulate Chinese manufacturing and export, why not use that money to send each of the 300 million Americans an $1,800 gift card to Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT)?

Imagine the consequences, all good for the Chinese economy. Chinese factories will once again be busy making plasma screen TVs, basketball shoes, thongs and wax lips. Chinese ships will again carry jam-packed cargo containers to the U.S. And, as Americans snatch up the Wal-Mart goodies, the stimulus cash will come flooding back to China. Then they can loan it back to us so we can give our own people a stimulus package and buy yet more foreign goods.

The odd thing is, the idea isn't all that crazy. But it should be.

Could China's fiscal stimulus package increase U.S. interest rates?

China's decision to spend about $586 billion or 4 trillion yuan in fiscal stimulus is likely to increase international commercial activity and global GDP, economists generally agree, but there may be a downside for the United States.

"There is the potential that U.S. interest rates could rise," economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Tuesday.

Wang said a key variable in U.S. interest movement will be whether China will need to repatriate capital deployed in the U.S. for investment back home in China.

"Right now, the initial models suggest investment pools in China will be sufficient to meet the additional capital that will be needed for the increase in public works projects," Wang said. However, Wang added that only five of his economic models have been completed in his study of investment flows, and five other scenarios with different assumptions still have to be run.

"Assuming what we know about U.S., European, Chinese and other economic growth rates for the first half of 2009, we should only see a slight increase in U.S. interest rates," Wang said. "On the other hand, China may seek to repatriate some U.S. investments as a safety mechanism of 'just in case things go worse than we plan.' "

Continue reading Could China's fiscal stimulus package increase U.S. interest rates?

Before the bell: Stocks to start higher; C, AIG, GM, F, NRG, C, NT, SBUX, WFC, STP, ANF ...

U.S. stock futures were higher Monday morning, indicating stocks could rise at the open after China Sunday announced a $585 billion stimulus package, which includes tax cuts and infrastructure spending. This cause world markets to climb as well as commodities. Oil followed stock markets and jumped above $64 a barrel. Another boost to stocks was further aid from the government to AIG.

[Update 8:25: Circuit City Stores Inc. (NYSE: CC) filed for bankruptcy. Shares are down 52% in premarket trading to 12 cents.]

American International Group (NYSE: AIG) -- The government on Monday provided new financial assistance to the troubled insurance giant, including pouring $40 billion into the company in return for partial ownership. Altogether, AIG got around $150 billion. AIG shares are shooting up over 21% in premarket trading.

General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM), Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) and Chrysler are also moving closer to a bailout as Obama's chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, called the industry an "essential" part of the U.S. economy. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said that the administration should consider expanding the $700 billion financial industry bailout to include car companies. With this kind of support, still undecided is the size and timing of any aid. GM shares are up 2.3% (it was hit by a downgrade from Barclays) and Ford shares are up nearly 5% in premarket trade. [Update 9:10: as expected, with the GM downgrade, it is down over 10% in premarket trading, Ford is only slightly down thought]

NRG Energy Inc. (NYSE: NRG) on Sunday rejected an unsolicited $6.1 billion all-stock bid from nuclear power giant and utility operator Exelon Corp. (NYSE: EXC), calling it too low. NRG shares jumped 6.8% in premarket trading.

Continue reading Before the bell: Stocks to start higher; C, AIG, GM, F, NRG, C, NT, SBUX, WFC, STP, ANF ...

China writes a check for $585 billion

China is worried that its own growth is slowing so much that unemployment in the big country will rise and GDP expansion will slow. It makes sense. Exports are off because the large nations of the West are importing less as they go through their own recessions.

To offset these problems, China's government will initiate a $585 billion stimulus package. The money will be used to build infrastructure, low-cost housing, and to help industries particularly hard hit by the export problems. Since China's GDP growth is not being driven by demand from outside the country, perhaps the government can create demand for goods and services within its own borders.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "Beijing has long held that economic growth of at least 8% is needed to provide the improvement of employment and incomes the ruling Communist Party relies on for popular support." Writing a huge check may work, but it may only work for a brief time.

A recession in major developed countries could last nearly two years. There is some evidence that GDP in the US could contract all next year and that corporate earnings could fall during the same period. Unemployment may well move over 8% marking a recession as bad as the ones in 1974 and 1982. The demand for imports could drop as sharply as it has in three decades.

In the teeth of that kind of slowing in the US and EU economies, China may be able to do very little to "save" its economy from dropping to GDP growth below 5% or perhaps even a contraction of economic activity.

Six hundred billion dollars seems like a lot until one looks at the headwinds.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Melamine in China: This isn't news to the Chinese. It should be.

In China, the cows are badly malnourished, and the routine spiking of dairy products with melamine and other illegal substances has been an "open secret" for years, says the Wall Street Journal today in a detailed look at the dairy system there. At the root of the problem is a dairy industry rife with farmers who have no idea how to feed or care for their cows, and even if they do, would always choose the cheapest possible option; whether feeding them with straw instead of corn, or (it seems obvious) allowing them enough room to graze naturally.

That melamine should be added to milk is only the most deadly in a string of unethical practices, starting with ill-treatment of animals and continuing through routine addition of "protein powder," a nutrient-booster made of animal parts, soy, and other ingredients. This powder was added, not to contribute to the health of the customer, but instead to fool inspectors.

It wasn't foolish enough; inspectors learned to identify the additions, as well as the "fresh-keeping liquid" of preservatives and antiobiotics. Were the farmers upset about their lack of ethics? No, they were just concerned the milk would be returned to them and be "wasted." Enter melamine.

Melamine, a scrap byproduct of many Chinese factories, mimics protein in lab tests. And it is extremely cheap.

Continue reading Melamine in China: This isn't news to the Chinese. It should be.

English speaking gains in China

In a special report on investing in China, global expert John Christy looks at New Oriental Education (NYSE: EDU). Here's the latest from The Forbes International Investment Report.

"No discussion of 'traditional Chinese values' can be complete without mentioning the importance of education. The Chinese education ethic intersects with the country's recent embrace of capitalism in New Oriental Education, China's leading private education company.

"Founded in 1993, New Oriental is one of China's great entrepreneurial success stories, making its founder and chief executive Michael Yu a billionaire. The company operates a network of nearly 250 schools and learning centers in 38 cities across China.

"These schools teach English, foreign languages, test preparation and more. Think of it as a cross between Berlitz and Kaplan, but with a much bigger target audience.

"New Oriental sells for 43 times analyst forecasts for fiscal 2009 earnings. While that's not cheap, New Oriental has a dominant position in its market and a history of delivering growth. Earnings are expected to grow 50% next year.

"And thanks to the high priority that many Chinese place on education, New Oriental's services aren't as much of a 'discretionary' purchase as they might seem. Demand for most of New Oriental's courses should hold up well even if China's economy cools."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

Imagine this: OPEC may not cut production much

There is a lot of debate among OPEC members about how much to cut production. Most of the talk is about a chop of one million barrels a day from the current 32 million barrels shipped.

The conventional wisdom is that the recession in the West is so bad and China's demand is falling so fast that the relatively modest cut may not push prices up and move more money into the treasuries of the cartel countries.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "At a time when petroleum demand is off sharply in the U.S. and other industrialized countries, some see global oil demand falling this year for the first time in decades." Some members of OPEC would like a huge cut in the hope that it will push oil back to $100.

There is another option and it is radical, but that does not mean it would not work. Don't cut at all.

If the recession becomes very deep, as it appears it will, anything that can be done to help a recovery is likely to help oil demand more than an onerous cut that could drive oil higher by 50%. That action could take a bad economic situation and make it much worse.

In other words, OPEC could offer one of the most important solutions to the economic problem by keeping supply as it is and taking a hit for a fairly short time. Most of the members have the money to wait for the GDP of the West to start to move up again. When that happens, oil prices will rise on their own. The cartel may get better long term financial results that way.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

Global Q&A: Still a believer in growth

I am the Global Editor at MoneyShow.com and each week I interview an investing expert. This week, I spoke with Vahan Janjigian, editor of Forbes Growth Investor, who discusses how the economic crisis affects his strategy and mentions some good international growth stocks.

Q. Vahan, although you primarily recommend US equities, your newsletter also includes a few international picks, such as American Oriental Bioengineering (NYSE: AOB) and Embraer (NYSE: ERJ). What factors made you choose these companies?

A. I do recommend foreign companies from time to time in the Forbes Growth Investor, but only if they trade on US exchanges and only if they show up at the top of my screens. I rely on a quantitative model that screens stocks based on the probability of out-performance over the next six to 18 months. I like AOB because it sells traditional Chinese plant-based pharmaceuticals in China. Demand is very strong for these natural products in that country. I like ERJ because it gives us exposure to Brazil, which has one the fastest growing economies in Latin America.

Q. Several of your recommendations are US-based multinationals, such as RPM (NYSE: RPM) and Amdocs (NYSE: DOX), both of whom do significant business around the world. How important was their international exposure to your selection, and why?

A: International exposure is not something I normally focus on. Besides, these days most mid- to large-sized companies have at least some international exposure. Because the global economic outlook is so uncertain at this time, I felt more comfortable with companies that have a diversified revenue stream.

Continue reading Global Q&A: Still a believer in growth

Wal-Mart's odd decision to go green

The news this morning was filled with reports that Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) is going to tell its Chinese suppliers that they will be reviewed more carefully for the quality of their products. That makes sense given all the bad milk and toys with toxic paint that have been showing up.

The odd part of the list of things Wal-Mart wants from its suppliers are companies who are willing to get more "green." According to The Wall Street Journal, "Wal-Mart said it will phase in energy-efficiency requirements with its Chinese suppliers next year."

Wal-Mart may be missing the point here. Its investors and shoppers don't give a damn. If "green" cuts the number of suppliers who make bids and raises prices, it could hurt margins. People who own the stock would rather have inventory sourced from companies that dump waste in rivers as long as they offer low costs.

To a large extent, customers almost certainly feel the same. Many people who shop at Wal-Mart have remarkably restricted budgets. Wal-Mart may be the only place they can got to get bargains on most of the products that they need. That overrides any concerns about whether suppliers are environmentally friendly.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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Last updated: November 22, 2008: 05:24 AM

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