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Paulson and Bernanke: Subprime is (not) contained

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Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke are finally getting around to admitting that the subprime problem is not "contained." Regrettably, their grudging admission of reality also comes with a price -- they are unwilling to offer a solution to a problem whose magnitude they cannot even count.

This is the scariest part. According to the New York Times, at a speech in New York last night Bernanke said, "I'd like to know what those damn things are worth. Until investors are confident in their evaluations, they are not going to be willing to fund these vehicles."

This spring, Paulson and Bernanke were singing the same hymn: "subprime is contained." The reasons? The administration's trademark combination of religion -- the desire to avoid a "moral hazard" -- coupled with incompetence -- a lack of awareness of the magnitude of the problem or how to solve it. Moral hazard is a concept I happen to agree with -- investors should get the benefits and pay the costs of their risky bets rather than asking the government to bail them out of their mistakes.

The incompetence is what I find most annoying. As The Goldman Sachs Group's (NYSE: GS) chief economist said in the New York Times, the Super SIV announced yesterday is "a PR move." The reason is that if the securities backing the Commercial Paper (CP) are truly undervalued, then the banks should be able to buy them cheaply and profit when the market realizes its mistake.

That's where Bernanke's exclamation comes into play. Nobody knows what those subprime mortgage backed securities (MBSs) are really worth. As I've posted before, they were sold on the basis of AAA credit ratings but now that the default rates on the mortgages are rising, it seems that none of the investors who bought the securities can estimate their future cash flows. And without that ability to value them -- one of the most fundamental concepts of finance -- the securities are essentially worthless.

So what is the solution? I think it's time for MBS owners to remove the golden wrapping paper and make an honest reckoning of the financial toxic waste on their books. This will cause massive capital write downs and a global credit crunch. After that, it will be time to fix the system that regulates these markets -- which I think should be guided by two principles:

  • Transparency. I would appoint an independent group -- e.g., one not paid by the people who create the securities as we do now -- to assess the value of the future cash flows of asset-backed securities. If those cash flows cannot be assessed, then the securities cannot be traded. If they can be assessed, then the values and the underlying assumptions must be made public in real time. This principle will slash the size of the market but keep honest the portion that remains.
  • Equitable compensation. Participants in the system that originates, packages, sells, lends to and invests in asset backed securities can keep getting their big bonuses. The only change I would make is to put those bonuses in an escrow account for 10 years. If the securities maintained their worth over the 10 years, market participants would be able to take their money out of the escrow account. If the securities became worthless, the escrow account would be used to pay off the buyers of the securities. This would make market participants think twice before they extend credit to people who can't pay back their loans.

Do I think any of this will happen? Not in this administration, which will try to boot the problem into 2009, but perhaps in the next.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

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Last updated: November 07, 2009: 09:27 AM

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