Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke are finally getting around to admitting that the subprime problem is not "contained." Regrettably, their grudging admission of reality also comes with a price -- they are unwilling to offer a solution to a problem whose magnitude they cannot even count.
This is the scariest part. According to the New York Times, at a speech in New York last night Bernanke said, "I'd like to know what those damn things are worth. Until investors are confident in their evaluations, they are not going to be willing to fund these vehicles."
This spring, Paulson and Bernanke were singing the same hymn: "subprime is contained." The reasons? The administration's trademark combination of religion -- the desire to avoid a "moral hazard" -- coupled with incompetence -- a lack of awareness of the magnitude of the problem or how to solve it. Moral hazard is a concept I happen to agree with -- investors should get the benefits and pay the costs of their risky bets rather than asking the government to bail them out of their mistakes.
The incompetence is what I find most annoying. As The Goldman Sachs Group's (NYSE: GS) chief economist said in the New York Times, the Super SIV announced yesterday is "a PR move." The reason is that if the securities backing the Commercial Paper (CP) are truly undervalued, then the banks should be able to buy them cheaply and profit when the market realizes its mistake.
That's where Bernanke's exclamation comes into play. Nobody knows what those subprime mortgage backed securities (MBSs) are really worth. As I've posted before, they were sold on the basis of AAA credit ratings but now that the default rates on the mortgages are rising, it seems that none of the investors who bought the securities can estimate their future cash flows. And without that ability to value them -- one of the most fundamental concepts of finance -- the securities are essentially worthless.
So what is the solution? I think it's time for MBS owners to remove the golden wrapping paper and make an honest reckoning of the financial toxic waste on their books. This will cause massive capital write downs and a global credit crunch. After that, it will be time to fix the system that regulates these markets -- which I think should be guided by two principles:
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Transparency. I would appoint an independent group -- e.g., one not paid by the people who create the securities as we do now -- to assess the value of the future cash flows of asset-backed securities. If those cash flows cannot be assessed, then the securities cannot be traded. If they can be assessed, then the values and the underlying assumptions must be made public in real time. This principle will slash the size of the market but keep honest the portion that remains.
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Equitable compensation. Participants in the system that originates, packages, sells, lends to and invests in asset backed securities can keep getting their big bonuses. The only change I would make is to put those bonuses in an escrow account for 10 years. If the securities maintained their worth over the 10 years, market participants would be able to take their money out of the escrow account. If the securities became worthless, the escrow account would be used to pay off the buyers of the securities. This would make market participants think twice before they extend credit to people who can't pay back their loans.
Do I think any of this will happen? Not in this administration, which will try to boot the problem into 2009, but perhaps in the next.
Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
10-16-2007 @ 12:36PM
Byron Spain said...
Ever consider the possibility that the big banks are deliberately causing a value panic to pick off these loans at enormous discounts? They will then pump up the market through pr hype and reap a huge reward on the backs of small investors. Most first time mortgage holders are going to do everything possible to avoid default knowing full well that if they do not, they will likely never be able to purchase a home.
10-16-2007 @ 1:10PM
kingcalvin said...
Let's look at this with some simplicity...
If you are the owner of something you want to sell, and no one wants to buy it, it's value is ZERO.
The value of these securities is pretty damn close to that. ZERO.
10-16-2007 @ 2:03PM
WhoseAskingU said...
It will be more obvious when all the people who now owe more on their mortgage than their house is worth, foreclose or surrender their home in bankruptcy. Right now everyone is worrying about ARM's defaulting, they don't even get how bad this is about to get. The longer home prices go lower the more foreclosures will come out of the woodwork. No one is going to keep a house that is worth less than what they are paying on it. Who would keep a devalued house? Now reconsider the ramifications for the economy when all those people walk away (good or bad credit, they'll walk). If we only have a recession we'll be lucky. Let's not even discuss the "D" word, let's keep our heads in the sand awhile longer, it's more comfortable.
10-16-2007 @ 3:14PM
Joe Scordato said...
As a trading and structuring advisory attorney, I have long recommended the "bonus escrow program" to counter some of the wilder proposals I've seen. Regretfully, no firm has ever taken my suggestion. Too bad, as I agree with you that it would inject a needed element of sobriety into the system.
10-16-2007 @ 4:13PM
jay thompson said...
Re: WhoseaskingU
The government that created the lending environment will be the one that bails out the ARM holders by holding down re-sets. Having your home value decrease in a given term is not a reason to walk away. Historical fluctuations are part of the deal. Over time, the asset will increase in value as always. I think most people realize this, and won't sacrifice thier own credit standing simply due to the artificially negative media "reporting".
10-17-2007 @ 7:38AM
Turley Muller said...
The credit crisis is not contained because there are still loans out there that will go bad. Everyone knows that, but no one knows exactly which specific loans will sour. Thus, investors are very hesitant to buy non-agency MBS.
I have written about this on my blog:
http://financial-alchemist.blogspot.com/2007/10/mortgage-fears-past-us.html
http://financial-alchemist.blogspot.com/2007/08/sub-prime-fears-affect-prime-borrowers.html